derekyoungjm’s diary

Hey guys, there’s a HUGE UFC PPV coming up this weekend with not one, but TWO championship fights on the card.

In order to properly prepare for it, we here at First Slice decided to get into contact with our pal, UFC fighter and Ultimate Fighter vet, Bubba McDaniel to help us preview the card.

Our Guest This Week: Bubba McDaniel

Not only do we get Bubba to walk us through the entire card, but we get to hear some of the first hand insight from the man who has trained with many of the individuals stepping foot inside the octagon this Saturday.

Bubba tells us his picks for this weekend’s fights and we discover if he’ll be able to beat this writer’s very own predictions on what will take place at UFC 187.

Here’s the way it’ll work: In true UFC form, all three round fights will have three bullet points describing how Bubba thinks the fights will go (championship fights will have five). Most correct picks out of the 12 will win (with tie-breakers broken by selecting Fight Night and Performance of the Night bonuses).

So read on to find out our Betting Lines for UFC 187:

Scoggins vs. Sampo Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Man I’m pullin’ for Scoggins, I’ve always liked him. If he goes out there and fights to his potential, I think he’s an untapped world champion.”

“Scoggins has a great team behind him, American Top Team. He knows what it’s like to be in there, he knows what it’s like to lose close ones and he knows what it’s like to get dominated. I’m hoping that he had a growing experience since his last loss.”

On Scoggins’s Losing: “He had never been used to that before. He was an undefeated kickboxer, he was an undefeated amateur, he was an undefeated pro until his third UFC fight and, at that point, he got mad and he tried to come and change up things with a different approach. It’s one of those things that I hope he’s made improvements.”

Raf’s Analysis:

On paper, Scoggins has Sampo beat in just about every respect. The only question being if Scoggins tries to take on Sampo’s perfect UFC takedown defense, but I just don’t see that being much of an issue here. I’m going to have to agree with you here Bubba, despite my appreciation for all things Gremlins. However, I will say, I think Sampo wins the better promotional photo pictured above.

Bubba’s Pick: Scoggins

Raf’s Pick: Scoggins

Makhachev vs. Kuntz Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Leo Kuntz was a guy who was on season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter who didn’t get into the house, but I was training with him at Jacksons MMA for a little while. The thing about him is, he’s tough, but his skill level isn’t as high as I think it should be to be in the UFC. The guy who he beat–let me tell you– [Scoggins’] strategy was to let his opponent kick his ass long enough to come back in the end. And in the UFC, I don’t think that’s a great strategy. Honestly, I love the guy to death, but I just don’t that’s a great strategy.”

On His Cautious Admiration Of Kuntz’s Drive: “He’s game, he’s game, he’s game. Unless he changed camps and went somewhere else from where he was, he had minimal knowledge. He had enough knowledge to keep him in the fight long enough to wear people out and come back. It was crazy.”

On Kuntz’s fighting tendencies: “He’s a ground guy, [but] he likes to stand and bang–and that’s not a great strategy for seasoned strikers.”

Raf’s Analysis:

It’s almost impossible to pick fighters who have zero percent fight stats (or dashes marking ‘not applicable,’ for that matter). However, while it’s tempting to go with Kuntz because of his slight edge on experience, you only need to take one look at the angry Russian to the left to know that he means business.

Bubba’s Pick: Makhachev

Raf’s Pick: Makhachev

Pyle vs. Covington Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“I think Mike Pyle is a guy who’s not past his prime, but his time is toward the end. But he’s such a seasoned veteran that no matter who fights him is in a world of trouble.”

On Pyle’s Fighter Mileage: His jaw, a lot of it’s gone, but he still in there banging dudes out. He’s won a couple of fights that–at one time–I didn’t think he could win and then in the last couple fights, against people I thought he’d put on a good showing on against, he got put down pretty quick. But I’m always rooting for Mike Pyle.

Old Generation vs. New Generation: I’m going to have to go with Pyle just because of veteran experience and hope for the best for him against a young lion. Sometimes though with young lions, you’re like: ‘man, I ain’t trying to fight you as hard as I can for three rounds, I’ll fight smarter and let you be a crazy man.’ But that kind of mentality can backfire because those young lions can come after you while you’re taking your time.

Raf’s Analysis:

It seems the bigger question isn’t how we think the fight will go, but rather how much wear and tear do we think Mike Pyle has taken. As much as I’d like to go for an up-and-comer like Covington, I can not violate my most sacred rule: no nickname, no vote. Viva Mike Pyle’s mullet, all day.

Bubba’s Pick: Pyle

Raf’s Pick: Pyle

Namajunas vs. Ansaroff Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Rose has a crazy style, she’s hard to deal with unless you’re just a straight wrestler, sort of like the way Carla Esparza did on that Ultimate Fighter finale. I have to pick Rose on most occasions.

On Rose’s Fighting Potential: “I even thought she was gonna take the title. She’s mean, she’s young, she comes to win, and some comes out to hurt people.”

Bubba’s all-in on Rose, except… “The only thing is though if she blows her load like she did in the first round of the finale, it’ll be a lot of trouble for her. If she doesn’t, and she comes in a little more poised, you know, learning from her loss, then I think she’s potential world champion.”

Raf’s Analysis:

This would be a great fight for Ansaroff to come in and make her name in the UFC… if she wasn’t fighting Namajunas. I don’t see it going her way on Saturday and I think there’s a premium value in Rose’s aggression. Carla Esparza was a tough loss, for sure, but I think she comes back in and redeems herself.

Bubba’s Pick: Namajunas

Raf’s Pick: Namajunas

Uriah Hall vs. Rafael Natal

Bubba’s Analysis:

“I’m gonna have to take [former opponent and fellow Ultimate Fighter 17 alum] Uriah just because it’s a TUF thing, you gotta pick the boys from your season because you want them to kill everybody.”

“Natal is a big, tall guy does well against guys who are standing right in front of him. He does good banging, he hurts guys and moves around. But Uriah’s faster, Uriah has just as much power. I’ve seen Andrew Craig come back and kick guys like Natal in the head. Natal has take some big knocks in his time, like against Tim Kennedy. Natal’s chin can be clipped and I believe Uriah’s gonna do it.“

“If Natal’s smart, he’ll try to take Uriah down, but at the same time, Uriah’s looking for somebody to try and take him down off of movement because they don’t want to get hit with crazy stuff. Natal’s got knock out power, but I don’t see it going that way. Uriah’s got heavy power when he wants–he doesn’t always throw it–but when it lands correctly, it’s going to hurt you–and I’ve got a broken face to know about that.”

Raf’s Analysis:

You gotta appreciate how Bubba can go from fighting Uriah to rooting for him. I would normally be right there with him rooting for Uriah, but we have a rule on my podcast: I’m contractually obligated to root for fighters also named Rafael. It’s statistically served me well.

Bubba’s Pick: Hall

Raf’s Pick: Natal

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Josh Burkman

Kim vs. Burkman Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

On Kim: “Dude, that guy is nasty. I’ve always looked up to him. If you watch the way that guy loses, it’s fast and it’s nasty. He only loses fights where something explosive happens at one point. That is NOT Burkman’s M.O. That’s just not happening.”

On Burkman’s Evolution: “Burkman is tough, he’s a longtime vet, always comes in with a good game plan to take it to somebody, but like his fight was Hector Lombard and that was all about “fight-to-survive.” So there’s a different fighter from what he used to be there as well.”

“I like Burkman, he went off and did some good things outside the UFC, but he’s one of those older guys, like Mike Plye, where there’s just too much skill from Kim on a different level than what Burkman is playing with. I think Kim will dominate most of the positioning, most of the fight.”

Raf’s Analysis:

I actually see this as a smidge more competitive than you do, but I agree, I just don’t see Burkman being able to overcome Kim. When Kim is on, he’s a beast. I think there’s actually a fair chance Burkman can survive all three and make it to a decision, but I’m not voting against Kim here.

Bubba’s Pick: Kim

Raf’s Pick: Kim

Dodson vs. Makovsky Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Man, I hate this. I watched them train together when they were training together at Jacksons MMA. Here’s the thing about Makovsky, he’s had on-and-off days, too, but that dude’s a good fighter. The difference is: John Dodson is always a great fighter in a three round fight no matter what.”

On Dodson: “He’s got power to try and put you to sleep. I’ve only seen him tired once and that was when he tried to put Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson away and didn’t do it. Other than that, that guy’s got crazy power and crazy explosiveness. I believe he should be world champion.”

Bubba, who’s trained with both guys, on how he describes sparring matches between Dodson and Makovsky back at Jacksons MMA: “Uh… fast. Little bumble bees coming out and hitting one another.”

Raf’s Analysis:

Bubba assures me there’s no ring rust on Dodson who hasn’t been back in the Octagon for almost a year now, but I can’t help but wonder if it does have any effect on the guy. Nonetheless, I’ve been a huge fan of Dodson and find it hard to believe he won’t be pressing the action.

Bubba’s Pick: Dodson

Raf’s Pick: Dodson

Benavidez vs. Moraga Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Benavidez is the one that you would think, but Moraga can put people to sleep here and there, too. He just doesn’t have that Dodson power. I would pick Benavidez because of his all-around skill, but Moraga’s right up there, just a little bit less than Benavidez in every category other than power.”

On Benavidez’s Evolution As A Fighter: “He’s an all around fighter, he likes to stand, he’s got a lot of movement, and his striking has come a long way, too.”

On Moraga’s Best Chance To Win: “The only thing is: when you watch the Mighty Mouse fight, I actually picked Benavidez to beat Johnson, but things happen. Sometimes you get clipped. And that’s the only way I think Moraga’s going to win this fight. I believe his skill is just a little bit sub-par to Benavidez.”

Raf’s Analysis:

Moraga’s going to need to throw more strikes in order to get the edge on Benavidez in this one. As much as I’d like Moraga to pull off the upset, I think Benavidez is going to prove a little too crafty for him.

Bubba’s Pick: Benavidez

Raf’s Pick: Benavidez

Browne vs. Arlovski Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“I watched them train together, I like them both and I think that each of them thinks they can get over on the other one–like they were both holding something back. I think Browne takes it by movement and length because Arlovski likes to stay in his thing and likes to be more of the cerebral assassin. He wants to get in there and land the good stuff, be more of a professional compared to a fighter. Travis is still in that ‘explosive, I want to be the man’ phase and I think that translates more into the fight.”

On Browne: “He’s got a lot of long kicks–and those elbows on anybody trying to take him down–and at some point, Andrei’s going to to have to clinch with him and try to take him down. Travis will try to keep him long and at bay. He plays a long game, he doesn’t try to get in there and bang it out.”

On How He Sees The Fight Going: “I give it to Travis just because of the striking advantage and he’s going to be the one trying to stay more active. Keeping everything moving with a faster pace and I just don’t see Andrei being that aggressive.”

Raf’s Analysis:

Travis. Browne’s. Elbows. The man is vicious. Plus, my hatred for all things Mr. 305 makes me incapable of supporting anyone named “Pitbull.”

Bubba’s Pick: Browne

Raf’s Pick: Browne

Cerrone vs. Makdessi Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Makdessi has no ****ing chance. I like Makdessi, I found out that he and I have the same birthday when they listed out all the fighters who were born on the same day, so happy birthday to him, but your birthday present is going to be a head kick.”

“Makdessi is way shorter than Cerrone, Cerrone stays long. I watched them train together, too, at Jacksons–and that one was one I know Makdessi wasn’t winning when they trained together. He’d fight well, but I think that Cerrone actually performs better in fights than he does in training.”

“The strategy for fighting Donald is bad anywhere: he can wrestle really well, he strikes really well, he strikes off of people making bad shots. If he thinks he can beat you, and he gives you that look like, ‘I can kick your ass,’ you are in for a world of trouble.”

Raf’s Analysis:

The person who got in that cheap shot on Cerrone at the Whole Foods probably landed a better strike than any that’ll be thrown his way on Saturday. You can’t go against Cerrone. Ever. I’m already chilling a celebratory Budweiser in the fridge in his honor.

Bubba’s Pick: Cerrone

Raf’s Pick: Cerrone

Weidman vs. Belfort Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“Vitor always has a chance. Vitor is a monster, things like that. Plus, I want to see what Vitor shows up with no TRT, no Roids. No anything like that.”

“I want to see how strong Vitor actually is against Chris who is still young, is still strong, and does still hit hard.”

“Look at who the last explosive middleweight was: Machida. He worked Machida, worked ’em! And I think he’s going to work Vitor, too.”

“Weidman’s worst option is to stay distance and striking, because that’s where Vitor does his explosive stuff. He needs to get right in his face. Put his head right on his chin. Move him around, play the wrestling game. Vitor wore out a little in different fights. If you watch that dude, he’s known for gassing after a couple of explosive early rounds.

“I think Weidman will finish him in round 4. He’ll either punch him out or sub him in round four. It could happen in 3, but I think Vitor might have the burn in the gut to try and gut out a third so that he can sleep at night knowing he pushed into the championship rounds.”

Raf’s Analysis:

I just don’t think Vitor’s “punchers’ chance” can overcome Weidman’s power. Having said that, Vitor will have the better hair.

Bubba’s Pick: Weidman

Raf’s Pick: Weidman

Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier

Johnson vs. Cormier Breakdown

Bubba’s Analysis:

“I got DC all the way. Reason being: styles make match-ups.”

“I thought that Rumble could have possibly taken it from Jon Jones–I thought DC could have taken it from Jon, but Jon went out there and played a perfect game plan against DC. Now Rumble would have had to play a perfect game plan against Jon to win. Could it have happened? Yes. Could he have out-powered Jon or knocked him out? Yes. I feel like that could have happened. But I don’t feel that Rumble beats DC because of styles.”

On why people are discounting Daniel Cormier: That’s just because people saw him lose to Jon Jones and they thought Anthony Johnson was the next coming. But we’ve seen Rumble get dominated–it was at 170, don’t get me wrong–and on those things that he’s gotten dominated at: DC is really good at them.

“I dont think that DC was ever really staggered bad enough with Jon, and you’ve watched him take shots from Josh Barnett, you watched him take shots from everybody he fought in Strikeforce. That dude’s got a chin, I don’t care what anybody says.”

“I don’t think Rumble has enough shots that he’s going to be able to land them well enough to where they’re going to hurt DC.”

Raf’s Analysis:

I have a tremendous amount of respect for DC (especially after his classy showing against Jones), but Anthony Johnson’s power scares me. And after seeing what he did to the guy who took the best fight to Jon Jones, Alexander Gustafsson, I have to give him the nod. Rumble all the way.

Bubba’s Pick: Cormier

Raf’s Pick: Johnson

Betting Line Tie-Breakers:

Bubba’s Picks

Fight of the Night: Dodson vs. Makovsky

Performances of the Night: Cerrone, Weidman

Raf’s Picks

Fight of the Night: Johnson Vs. Cormier

Performances of the Night: Johnson, Cerrone

Special thanks to our pal Bubba for taking the time to help us properly preview the fight. May the better man win.